Possible Iran gas cut does not pose risk to Türkiye: Experts

ISTANBUL

Türkiye’s energy supply security is resilient to possible gas cuts from Iran, according to experts from the industry.

Experts note that Türkiye has a strong infrastructure and alternative sources to compensate for potential disruptions in the gas supply obtained from Iran or Turkmenistan through swaps.

Energy Minister Alparsan Bayraktar said Türkiye is not experiencing any disruption in its natural gas supply from Iran.

Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting in Ankara earlier this week, Bayraktar stated: "We do import gas from Iran, but not oil. And we do not foresee any issues with gas supply."

Following Israel’s attack on Iran's largest gas production field, the South Pars Field, concerns have arisen regarding possible disruptions in gas supply to Türkiye.

However, experts emphasize that Türkiye has a high level of preparedness for potential interruptions, thanks to investments in its natural gas infrastructure in recent years.

Türkiye has been sourcing natural gas from Iran for many years.

As of March, Türkiye started receiving Turkmen gas through swaps via Iran. The swap agreement includes the delivery of 1.3 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas to Türkiye by the end of the year.

"Currently, in addition to Turkmen gas, we also receive gas directly from Iran. Negotiations for the new period are ongoing,” said Murat Kalay, secretary-general of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Platform Association (PETFORM).

“With the infrastructure we have developed, the increase in our [liquefied natural gas] LNG capacity, and our underground storage facilities, we are much more resilient and prepared for extraordinary situations and uncertainties,” he added.

Kalay pointed out that the gas supplied by Turkmenistan does not pose a threat to Türkiye's energy security, stating, "Our infrastructure and alternative security sources already allow us to easily compensate for this amount and prevent any issues in consumption."

With summer here, Türkiye’s gas demand has decreased, as has Iran's domestic consumption, according to Oğuzhan Akyener, president of the Turkey Energy Strategies and Policies Research Center (TESPAM).

"This suggests that since domestic demand in Iran is also low, shipments will continue. Currently, Türkiye's natural gas demand has declined due to summer, meaning there is no urgent need for additional gas,” he said.

Akyener stated that large-scale attacks by Israel on Iran's natural gas production and transmission infrastructure could be expected in the future, potentially hindering the supply of both Iranian and Turkmen gas through swaps.

“Türkiye has the capability to manage this process even if the Turkmen swap option is halted or gas supply from Iran is cut off,” he said.

According to the latest data available from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK), Türkiye imported 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas in March, representing a 35.9 percent increase from the same month a year ago.

The highest volume of pipeline gas imports came from Russia, totaling 1.79 bcm meters. This was followed by 1.04 bcm from Azerbaijan and 561 mcm from Iran.